Charge
Bryan Edwards at 16. I believe that even though the Raiders took Henry Ruggs well before Edwards, he will end up being a target machine in Las Vegas. Prior to his foot injury before the combine, there was buzz of him being a 1st round selection and rightfully so. His time at South Carolina garnered him an insane breakout age of 17.8 while posting a dominator rating of 48.4%. According to Player Profiler, a breakout age is the age at which a WR achieves a 20% dominator rating, and that number represents a WR’s share of their team’s total receiving yardage and touchdowns. Player Profiler tells us that a Breakout Age under 19 considers a WR to be a phenom, while a dominator rating over 45% is extraordinary. Because of the talent and these predictive factors, I believe that Bryan Edwards will end up being a steal for the Raiders.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn at 17. I know we were all hoping that the Bucs took a running back earlier than the 3rd round, but here we are. Vaughn wasn't as productive on the ground his senior year, gaining roughly 200 less yards on 40 more touches, but he did double his receiving totals which is encouraging. Had he gone somewhere other than Illinois and Vanderbilt I believe he would've been taken higher. The Bucs need a primary back and I think Vaughn challenges Ronald Jones right away. Zack Moss at 25. I wanted to throw at least one 3rd round pick in here, and here is Moss at your 3.01. Right off the bat I was not a fan of this landing spot, mostly because of all the shares I have of Devin Singletary, but after thinking about it I think they can both be productive in Buffalo. Moss posted over 1,000 yards on the ground his last three years at Utah, and in two of those years notched 28 receptions and at least 240 yards in the air. He also managed to find the endzone in the double digits the last three years. Frank Gore vacates 166 carries from 2019 and Moss should see some of that action. Will he be a top 5 back? No, almost definitely not, but as your 25th player off the board he could be a consistent deep flex.
Retreat
Henry Ruggs at 11. This is less of a knock against Ruggs, and more of a knock on the Raiders situation. As I mentioned in my “Charges” I think that Bryan Edwards ends up becoming the true number 1 target in Vegas. Ruggs time at Alabama wasn’t as impressive as Jerry Jeudy or even another player who has the possibility of being a 1st round talent next year in Devonta Smith. Watching film on Ruggs you can see that he is definitely more than just a burner and he is clearly talented, but I don’t believe that John Gruden will find a way to utilize him as he should. If Ruggs slips in your league to the early second, I would scoop him up in a heartbeat, but at 11 I would take a chance on a different WR first. My guess is that Ruggs will be great for the Raiders, but not so great for fantasy.
KJ Hamler at 21. Yes, at pick 2.09 you could probably do worse than KJ Hamler, but I would rather take a chance on those RB’s that follow him with hopes that they can get into a decent committee. Hamler is a talent WR that happens to fall into a less than favorable landing spot. Going to the Broncos as the second WR to be drafted for them likely means he isn’t going to be getting a lot of targets. The Broncos threw the ball 504 times last year but had such inconsistent QB play from Joe Flacco and Drew Lock that it’s difficult to guess how 2020 might look. The bad news for Hamler is that he is likely behind Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Noah Fant, and both Philip Lindsay and new RB Melvin Gordon for targets.
Cole Kmet at 30. This choice is entirely team dependent, so if you absolutely need at tight end go ahead and draft Kmet at 30 as he is the only TE I would draft in the 3rd round. For the rest of you who do not need a TE, I would pass on him as this is not an ideal landing spot for me. The Chicago Bears currently have 10 tight ends on their team. Yes, 10. If your rookie draft isn’t until late July or even August you will probably have a better idea of where Kmet would be on the depth chart, but as of right now I have him behind Jimmy Graham. Kmet has a chance to take over through preseason or even after this season as the Bears have a potential out of Jimmy Graham’s contract. Until then, I’m passing on Kmet at 30.